Before launching themselves into space on rockets, NASA astronauts ran tests in high-altitude balloons.
A balloon flight on May 4, 1961, took American Victor Prather and another pilot to 113,720 feet, scraping the edge of space. The goal was to test NASA’s new space suit.
The flight was a success. The suit worked beautifully.
As Prather descended back to earth, he opened the faceplate on his helmet when he was low enough to breathe on his own, ostensibly to catch some fresh air.
He landed in the ocean as planned, where a helicopter was to pull him to safety. But there was a small mishap: While connecting himself to the helicopters rescue line, Prather slipped, falling into the ocean.
This shouldn’t have been that big of a deal, and no one in the rescue helicopter panicked. The space suit should have been watertight and buoyant.
But since Prather had opened his faceplate, he was now exposed to the elements. Water rushed into his suit. Prather drowned.
Think how much planning goes into launching someone into space. So much expertise, so many contingencies. So many what-ifs and what-thens. Every detail is contemplated by thousands of experts. NASA is probably the most planning-centric organization that has ever existed; you don’t go to the moon by crossing your fingers and hoping for the best. Every conceivable risk has a Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, and then two back-ups for each.
But even then – despite so much planning – a tiny thing no one had considered invites catastrophe.
It’s well known that people are bad at predicting the future. But this misses an important nuance: We are actually good at predicting the future, except for the surprises – which tend to be all that matter!
The biggest risk is always what no one sees coming, because if no one sees it coming, no one’s prepared for it; and if no one is prepared for it, its damage will be amplified when it arrives.
As financial advisor Carl Richards says, “Risk is what’s left over after you think you’ve thought of everything.”
That’s the real definition of risk – what’s left over after you’ve prepared for the risks you can imagine.
Risk is what you don’t see.
-Excerpts from Same as Ever, by Morgan Housel
“All of life is the management of risk, not its elimination.”
-Walter Wriston
