From February to April 2025, weak La Niña conditions are expected to persist, with a 60% chance of transitioning to ENSO-neutral by the March-April-May season. These La Niña conditions typically bring variability, with typical La Niña patterns potentially being influenced by short-term fluctuations. Some models, including UKMET and METEO France, suggest warmer-than-normal temperatures in certain areas, though the overall pattern remains consistent with a weak La Niña setup.

Drought conditions are expected to continue across much of the Northern Plains and the Missouri River basin, where there will be equal chances or below-normal precipitation. However, the Great Lakes region into the Ark-La-Tex area is likely to see some drought improvement or even removal due to the expected above-normal precipitation during this period.

Temperature outlooks show below-normal temperatures favored in the Northern Plains, including parts of Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nebraska. Conversely, the Southwest and Southeast regions of the Central U.S. are expected to experience above-normal temperatures—typical of a La Niña pattern as it strengthens.

In terms of precipitation, above-normal rainfall is expected from the Great Lakes region southward through the Ark-La-Tex area. On the other hand, below-normal precipitation is favored across the southern U.S., extending into Colorado and western Kansas, with equal chances of precipitation in areas in between.

The general outlook mirrors a classic La Niña signature, with below-normal temperatures across the north and increased precipitation potential in the east, while the western and southern parts of the region remain drier than usual. Despite the weak La Niña’s variability, these patterns are likely to hold steady as the season progresses.