From November 2024 to January 2025, forecasts suggest a winter marked by high variability, driven by a weak and short-lived La Niña or potentially ENSO-neutral conditions. While the weak La Niña may influence patterns, much of the winter will be shaped by short-term trends, with significant contributions from the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the stratospheric vortex, and other teleconnections such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO).

For the western U.S., the MJO is expected to play a role in generating uncertainty, particularly as cooler conditions may develop later in the season. Meanwhile, most of the central U.S. (CR) is expected to experience above-normal temperatures, with a stronger warming signal in the south. The Great Lakes region, however, is expected to see a more moderate warm signal, with greater uncertainty in temperature projections. Precipitation signals across CR are mixed, but there is a pronounced dry signal in the southern part of the region. Some models indicate higher precipitation potential for Kansas, which justifies the inclusion of increased chances for precipitation there.

Temperature projections for the northern U.S. have been revised, with expanded areas of above-normal temperatures in the Great Lakes region and less of an influence from La Niña. Precipitation signals are similarly mixed across CR, with the most significant impacts likely occurring on the fringes of the region. The Great Lakes region’s above-average precipitation outlook has been adjusted, reflecting the weaker La Niña conditions expected.

In terms of drought, conditions are not expected to improve significantly across the northern and central Plains during the winter months. However, in the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley regions, some improvement in drought conditions is expected, partly due to shorter-term favorable precipitation patterns and the weak La Niña’s potential to enhance rainfall in these areas.